Threat Identification, Axis, Assessment, and Mitigation for the Great Tribulation
Alas! for that day is great, there is none like it; and it is the time of Jacob's distress, but he will be saved from it.
Jeremiah 30:7
Now at that time Michael, the great prince who stands guard over the sons of your people, will arise. And there will be a time of distress such as never occurred since there was a nation until that time; and at that time your people, everyone who is found written in the book, will be rescued.
Daniel 12:1
When the subject of the End Times, the Rapture, and the Great Tribulation comes up, there are four different human reactions to the subject. They mimic the reaction that the children of Israel had when Pharaoh’s chariots were bearing down on them at the crossing of the Red Sea.
Allow me to recount that story briefly. It is prophetic as to how the end-time believers are going to deal with the Great Tribulation.
Now the LORD spoke to Moses, saying, tell the sons of Israel to turn back and camp before Pi-hahiroth, between Migdol and the sea; you shall camp in front of Baal-zephon, opposite it, by the sea. For Pharaoh will say of the sons of Israel, “They are wandering aimlessly in the land; the wilderness has shut them in. Thus I will harden Pharaoh's heart, and he will chase after them; and I will be honored through Pharaoh and all his army, and the Egyptians will know that I am the LORD.” And they did so. When the king of Egypt was told that the people had fled, Pharaoh and his servants had a change of heart toward the people, and they said, "What is this we have done, that we have let Israel go from serving us?" So he made his chariot ready and took his people with him; and he took six hundred select chariots, and all the other chariots of Egypt with officers over all of them. The LORD hardened the heart of Pharaoh, king of Egypt, and he chased after the sons of Israel as the sons of Israel were going out boldly. Then the Egyptians chased after them with all the horses and chariots of Pharaoh, his horsemen and his army, and they overtook them camping by the sea, beside Pi-hahiroth, in front of Baal-zephon.
Exodus 14:1–9
The children of Israel, by led by Moses and the Pillar of cloud by day and fire by night, journeyed into the wilderness. The direction did not seem to make sense. God led them to a choke point. There was one way in, two mountains blocking the sides, and they were completely blocked by the banks of the Red Sea. Pharaoh’s chariots were following their previous path and now there was no way to go. There was no escape.
As Pharaoh drew near, the sons of Israel looked, and behold, the Egyptians were marching after them, and they became very frightened; so the sons of Israel cried out to the LORD. Then they said to Moses, "Is it because there were no graves in Egypt that you have taken us away to die in the wilderness? Why have you dealt with us in this way, bringing us out of Egypt? Is this not the word that we spoke to you in Egypt, saying, “Leave us alone that we may serve the Egyptians”? For it would have been better for us to serve the Egyptians than to die in the wilderness.
Exodus 14:10–12
Panic had set in. Based on the statements of fear by the Israelites, they were not familiar with God’s plan to take them out of Egypt to the Promised Land. Oh sure, they liked the idea that they could leave slavery, but God’s judgments upon Egypt were in the past. They had a real problem now that they were being threatened by Pharaoh. Let us quickly assess blame for this mess before we can work on a solution. Consider their blame game for a moment:
“Moses, you finally enraged Pharaoh and he wants to kill all of us now. You led us out here to die with you and be buried in the wilderness. You have mistreated us, getting us to leave our homes and jobs we had in Egypt. We told you to leave us alone and let us be. But, oh no, you and your interpretation of what God said has gotten us into a huge mess with Pharaoh and the Egyptians. We are now forced to figure out what to do because of this mess you caused.”
Let us summarize quickly why they said those things:
They forgot they were descendants of Abraham.
They forgot the story of Joseph and how they got to Egypt.
They forgot the promise God gave that the fourth generation (their generation) would leave Egypt.
They forgot the judgments that God put on Egypt, including the death of the first born, which caused their release.
They forgot the pillaging they did in leaving Egypt.
They forgot the Pillar that was now leading them.
They decided to put all the blame on Moses.
The Israelites then came up with four game plans:
Some of them said, “Let us go throw ourselves into the sea and drown. That would be better than being slaughtered by the Egyptians.”
Some of them said, “Let us surrender ourselves to the Egyptians and we will be their slaves forever. At least we will be alive.”
Still another group of them said, “Let us just act like none of this is happening. We will not do anything and maybe this will calm down like everything else does with enough time.”
Finally, the last group said, “Let us FIGHT! We do not have any weapons and we are not trained to fight, but at least we will go down fighting.”
While the people were highly agitated and yelling at each other, Moses finally was able to speak.
But Moses said to the people, "Do not fear! Stand by and see the salvation of the LORD which He will accomplish for you today; for the Egyptians whom you have seen today, you will never see them again forever. The LORD will fight for you while you keep silent."
Exodus 14:13–14
Let me summarize what Moses said to the different groups:
Stop! Do not kill yourselves.
You will not surrender to be their slaves. You will not see them again after today.
Watch what God does.
God will fight them for you.
You know the rest of the story. God opened a path through the sea and the children of Israel crossed the Rea Sea. Pharaoh’s chariots followed them and God closed the sea upon them. They died; Israel was saved.
Now, let us talk about you and I and the soon-coming Great Tribulation.
God’s end-of-the-ages plan is for His enemies to die, and we get saved.
…but he [Israel] will be saved from it.
Jeremiah 30:7
…and at that time your people, everyone who is found written in the book, will be rescued.
Daniel 12:1
However, when the Great Tribulation begins with the first part of the Abomination of Desolation prophecy (shutting down the daily sacrifice at the altar.) … AND the rapture does NOT happen, the Christian world will be in shock.
I have already been told by Pastors and strong evangelical believers that if that happens, they will give up the faith. They do not want to serve any God who would make them or their families to go through the Great Tribulation. Just like the children of Israel did when faced with their fear, some will suggest suicide, some will give up and surrender, some will just act like nothing is really happening, and some will arm themselves to fight.
I pray that there will be someone there to say, “Stand still and see the salvation of God.”
Let us be honest about what we are facing with the Great Tribulation. Let’s understand what the threat is, where will it come from, how will it impact us, and what can we do about it. We are going to do threat identification, threat axis, threat assessment, and threat mitigation. Many of these threats are already known by us, and many do not need detailed explanations. The problem with the Great Tribulation is that many of the prophesied events will be happen at the same time and amplify the effects.
There is one threat that stands out above all others. Ignorance of the prophecies of the Great Tribulation will harm you faster than anything I can list here. Ignoring the Great Tribulation and Almighty God’s return is the highest threat, above all else. You can eliminate that threat by waiting and watching for the Lord, getting more oil for your lamp, and understanding how He intends to deliver us.
But let us try to understand first what God has planned for the Great Tribulation. Here is what we face in the final three and a half years prior to the Resurrection and the establishment of the Messiah’s Kingdom. All these threats will add up to a time of distress the world has never seen before.
Personal Injury (First Aid/Medical Emergency)
Anytime you are moving or relocating your family, the possibility of personal injury can happen. The probability increases when you are moving yourself and your things. If you are going to make it through the Great Tribulation, you will have to relocate at various times. You will need to have basic first aid skills and equipment.
Disease (Acute and Chronic)
Many brethren have chronic issues requiring medication and care. We all understand how pandemics work. A simple cold or allergy problem can become pneumonia in an outdoor setting. According to the Bible, there were none who were infirm in the Egyptian exodus. Will God heal us at the beginning of the Great Tribulation? I will not be shocked when it happens.
Hostile Neighbors
The love of many has grown cold. Mass shootings and crime in the streets are commonplace these days. This is a primary threat in cities. As basic services suffer, such as food on the shelves and utilities for water and sewer, electricity, police and fire protection, the general populace will become openly hostile. Martial Law will replace basic liberties and abuses will occur. You will have to escape and go into the wilderness (countryside) to avoid all of this.
But let us consider ourselves in the camps after we escape. Fear will do a lot of things to people, and a lack of faith and confidence in God will result in conflict and hostility in the camp. I will address this more when we speak of mitigating this threat at the conclusion.
Earthquakes
Presently, there is an earthquake occurring somewhere in the Earth every 23 seconds. They are increasing at a rapid pace. There are many well-known earthquake zones, especially around the Pacific Rim, the Middle East, and even near the Mississippi River. They are very disruptive and cause great confusion. They are easy to avoid. But the biggest one is prophesied to occur at the Day of the Lord. Do not worry. We will not be on the surface of the Earth for than one, but God plans on terraforming the whole planet (mountains brought down, valleys raised up, Jerusalem will be chief of mountains, the sea is no more, etc.).
Volcanos (Yellowstone)
Volcanoes, for the most part, are localized to a specific mountain or mountain range. Any existing volcanic mountain will be dangerous, but the Yellowstone Volcano is a super volcano with many vents that can produce a multi-state explosion. The area affected by an eruption at Yellowstone would be the Northwestern states and the Northern Plains states: Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, and the Dakotas would be impacted with ash and debris, based on wind and weather patterns. You will not want to be there when it blows.
Flooding
Torrential rains can flood any surface water locations, including creeks, rivers, and lakes. Hydrology is an incredible force and you cannot stop it when it comes. History is filled with disaster stories of this type. When near water sources that can flood, you must determine the high ground areas before locating there. God intends to poison most surface fresh water. He promises to lead us to “springs of clean water.”
Tsunami
Tsunamis are a problem for coastlands and shorelines. God says He will destroy the coastlands. This threat could part of His providential plan. Staying on a coastland is not a good idea in the Great Tribulation.
Droughts
Droughts are a threat to crops and cause other plant life to dry up. When we think of a wilderness, a land suffering drought is the most likely wilderness the Prophets are referring to. God has promised us water, just as He did for Israel when they were in many drought-stricken areas. Whether it is spring water from the ground or spring water from a rock, a drought area is no threat to us. The prophecy says we will flee to the “wilderness of the peoples.”
Thunderstorms (wind and hail)
The Central Plains of America are the primary areas for thunderstorms with extreme wind and hail. They occur most often in the spring and fall as the seasons change. These storms also produce lightening. A thunderstorm requires us to seek shelter from the elements. Trees may seem like a cover but they also are lightning rods. A tent with metal uprights is a lightning rod. Wind damage from these storms will break tree branches and blow RVs over. Tents under trees may seem like a good idea for shade but not for a thunderstorm. Tents will need extra ground stakes in the wind. However, tents are trampolines for hail and only very large hail will damage them. During the Darkness in the last five months of the Great Tribulation, you can expect horrific lightning storms (constant flashes like strobe lights.)
Tornadoes
The vortex from a super cell can produce wind speeds in excess of 300 mph. Depending on the size, a tornado can be from 100 feet wide up to a half of a mile. Tornadoes can come in clusters with many supercells forming a southwest to northeast line. Anyone in its path must be below ground to survive or they will fly to the next county or be hit with debris. Tents and RVs do not do well in tornados. The only way to escape the damage is to move perpendicular to its path. Most tornadoes move from the south and west traveling north and east. Generally, you escape moving to the northwest or southeast.
Tornadoes tend to occur in the Plains states or along the gulf coast. The outer bands of a hurricane often spawn tornadoes as well.
Hurricanes
The massive vortex of a hurricane can affect multiple states in the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines. As the surge of the ocean hits the coastline, many feet of water will go inland, flooding many areas. The increase in rain will flood creeks, rivers, and lakes. The straight-line winds of a hurricane range from 80 to 150 mph. We have seen from news reports how extensive the effects can be. You do not want to be anywhere near them in the final days.
Forest Fires
Many survivalists and preppers believe that camping in the woods with trees is the best option for them. This is not a good choice for the tribulation saints. First, survivalists and preppers will be defending themselves with firearms. They will be shooting invaders to their area. Further, God intends to burn down all the trees, first one third of them and then all of them. Being in a wooded area during the Great Tribulation is a death trap.
Wild Fires
If the countryside is dry enough with strong winds, a wildfire can occur anywhere and race through a large area. You must escape its path in a parallel fashion to the fire line. Running toward it or running away from it does not ensure safety. A natural fire break, such as a river or an area where there is no flammable material, is the only way to avoid the consequences. Tents and RVs must move and escape.
Asteroid/Meteor Strike
If a rock falls out of the heavens, there is little to no time to avoid being hit. You pretty much endure it and hope it hits where you are not. A large asteroid can be the size of a house or football stadium. When it hits, it will produce a blast wave greater than a nuclear weapon without the radiation. If it strikes land, it will produce a crater spewing debris into the air, pelting a very large area. Should it hit the ocean, it will produce a giant tsunami that could overwhelm all the coastlands connected to that ocean. It is believed that a large asteroid could be an extinction level event. The amount of dirt, smoke, and debris cast into the atmosphere could darken the sky for months, destroying the earth’s ability to live. All life would die in one year, primarily from starvation.
This is an event prophesied to occur for the last five months of the Great Tribulation. It will strike land, opening an abyss into the earth and causing atmospheric darkness. The darkness will cover the world. Mankind will know that the world is dying. The Lord comes after those five months of darkness. Those five months are called “the final days of indignation.” The prophecy also says that the tribulation saints will have light and many will come to their light for salvation.
Terror Attack
When we think of terror attacks, we think of Islamic extremists and events like the World Trade Center attacks, bombs blasted in crowded areas, and mass-shooting attacks. They are part of our present-day world. But in the Great Tribulation, a different kind of terror attack will occur that the world has not seen before. As a result of the asteroid deep impact, demons will be released from that abyss to terrorize mankind during the months of darkness. The prophecy says they will be the size of horses, will be able to fly with large wings, and sting (harm) a person with their tails. They will not kill people, but the fright and wounding will be horrific. Many will try to develop highly organized blocking defenses against them but will not be successful.
Here is another most interesting element given in the prophecy. They do not harm anything “green.” Hiding in a bush or being camouflaged may be a mitigation method here. Furthermore, the prophesied 144,000 with the name of God in their foreheads will repel them. Being with some of these saints is highly desirable and preferable in the Great Tribulation. This is a particularly strange prophecy for the Great Tribulation.
Basic Warfare (Martial Law/Restricted Areas)
Basic warfare is when armed groups begin fighting against other armed groups. Here in the United States, it is very conceivable that both conservative and liberal citizens will arm themselves, fight one another, and fight the government at the same time. Small towns may become havens for these groups and be hostile to everyone else. In the ancient exodus, Israel faced raiders who would attack the weak elements of the camp. They were called “the sons of Amalek.” In the Great Tribulation, the saints will have to defend themselves from those who will attack the perimeter. The Law of Moses says that the sons of Israel will kill the sons of Amalek on sight in every generation.
High Altitude EMP (Eastern and Western)
Besides sabotage of key installation and infrastructure, the first attack in a nuclear war will be a high-altitude nuclear detonation to produce an Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) to disable public utilities and electronic equipment within line of sight of the detonation. This attack essentially blinds the country so that all communications are disabled. It is comparable to a larger microwave burst. People will survive this if they are not looking up directly at it when it goes off. The RF (radio frequency) pulse, however, will surge (within the weapon’s footprint pattern) down through the circuits, burning out components and shutting down all electronics. It could disable automobiles, cell phones, computers, and anything with electronic circuits. The only way to survive this kind of attack is to shield the devices from the blast.
Nuclear First Strike (Military Bases)
Should a High Altitude EMP attack occur, you should then seek protection from the following nuclear strikes. This is not a time to be outside or looking around. The flash from a nuclear blast will both blind eyes and burn any exposed skin. Most people are afraid of the radiation from a nuclear blast. That is not the greatest threat. The blast and blast wave will be the problem. Depending on the yield of the weapon and altitude from which is it detonated, most of the nuclear weapons aimed at the United States will come from ICBM’s (intercontinental ballistic missiles) and SLBM’s (submarine-launched ballistic missiles). These are first-strike weapons that travel anywhere from eight to twenty minutes to their targets. Unless you are connected to the Satellite Warning System, the President, the National Command Center, and all the Missile Warning elements of the Military, you will not see it coming.
A first-strike attack will be directed at the military and their bases. The second-strike attack will be directed at population centers and the nation’s infrastructure. It is highly likely that the Great Tribulation will include a full first-strike nuclear exchange. The question is, how close will it be to you and whether you will experience the blast effects. If you are within one mile of a detonation you will die. Ranging out from the center to eleven miles will have severe consequences. In simple terms, a blast will affect a twenty-mile diameter area. There are larger weapons, but they will be directed at National Command Center and Missile Fields. The Coastlines of the United States and the missiles fields in Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Montana, and North Dakota will most likely receive the largest weapons. Army, Air Force, and Space Force Bases, along with Naval Ports, will be hit numerous times by primary weapons.
The radiation exposure will be high for the first day and reduced to an acceptable level in about one week. Everyone will have some exposure level from radiation but it will not be immediate as compared to the actual blast, unless you were within the blast radius. You should assume a radius of ten miles from the center of the blast as lethal.
One of the seal judgments of the Great Tribulation is called “War.” Some of the worst judgments will result in the death of one-fourth of mankind, followed by the death of an additional one-third. The resulting math says that half of the population of the world will die from war, famine, and disease. Nuclear war will be the beginning.
Nuclear Second Strike (Population Centers)
If you survive the first strike and the enemy still has further capability to launch a second strike, then large cities will be the next targets. The prophecies of the Bible are very specific in terms of large population groups suffering judgments. There is no question that evacuating from every large city will be essential to making it through the Great Tribulation.
Let me add this one piece of information that may or may not be of any benefit. Maintaining a nuclear weapon so it will work when fired is a serious task. There is plenty of evidence that the enemies of the United States have not been diligent in the maintenance of these weapons. The result is that many of these weapons launched at us in both a first and second strike may not go off, they will be duds. Furthermore, there will be defensive efforts to “shoot them down” before they arrive. Until the world goes into this type of war, we do not know if these things will work and how damaging they will really be.
Tribulation Judgments
The judgments in the Book of Revelation are extensive and pervasive: the destruction of all the trees, all the fresh water, all the grass, all the oceans, all the atmosphere, all the animal world, world economics, and everyone is in despair. There is one overall judgment that seems to bring this all about. It is Solar radiation. The prophecy says the Sun will scorch mankind in the Great Tribulation, leading to the Great Darkness. The only way to avoid Solar radiation is to cover up and avoid direct exposure.
Here is the Good News. The prophecy describes the saints as “overcomers” and “survivors.” All of this will showcase God’s deliverance and salvation of His people. It will be just like what happened to Egypt. When the children of Israel were saved, Egypt was destroyed. God’s purposes will be fulfilled. The world will learn that He is the One and only God of the Universe. We will learn to trust Him.
Final Map Consolation
When you lay out a map of the United States and consider all the cities, rivers, coastlines, and military targets, certain areas of the country become “no-go” zones and other areas become “what is left.” The enclosed map is a summary level overview of all the threats compared with the prophesied judgments. It shows the no-go areas and the possible areas where God will lead us through the “wilderness of the peoples.” This is our Threat Identification, Threat Axis, and Threat Assessment analysis prior to the Great Tribulation.
Threat Mitigation
The Bible describes three destinies for the Tribulation Saints: 1) Take up weapons and die by those weapons; 2) Be taken captive because they would not escape in time; and 3) Those who do escape, survive, and endure to the end. The first two have clear results — they do not make through the three- and one-half years of the Great Tribulation. The third destiny will require a shelter (sukkah).
Hunkering down in a fixed fortress will not work; it is a death trap of your own making. You must be willing to leave Egypt to go to the Promised Land. You must get out of Babylon to avoid God’s judgments. The primary way to mitigate the threats of the Great Tribulation is be mobile, to be able to relocate multiple times and have an adequate shelter at each location. The Feast of Tabernacles teaches us how to take our families out of our homes and set up a camp with other brethren. We are to remember how the Egyptian exodus played out. Quite simply, we are going to repeat that exodus, but it will be from all the nations of the world.
The good news in this Greater Exodus is God’s promise for water, food, and protection. However, He does not promise us a sukkah (a tent, a temporary shelter). We must provide that for ourselves.
There are some other essentials that will be required to go with that Sukkah. We will be saved by God’s grace through our faith. Just as we quote the verse for salvation and forgiveness of sins, you can be assured that it applies to the journey of the Greater Exodus. The Tribulation saints will make it to the end. They will see the Lord return and they will be waving those leafy branches used for their sukkah when He walks into Jerusalem.
After these things I looked, and behold, a great multitude which no one could count, from every nation and all tribes and peoples and tongues, standing before the throne and before the Lamb, clothed in white robes, and palm branches were in their hands; and they cry out with a loud voice, saying, “Salvation to our God who sits on the throne, and to the Lamb.”
Revelation 7:9–10
Shalom,
Article written by Monte Judah.
Scripture references from the NASB95
Reference
Skousen, Joel and Andrew Skousen. 2020. Strategic Relocation: North American Guide to Safe Places. 4th Edition.